Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
