Just 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as his coach admonished him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a sign or the source for the team's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response was far more favourable. When the England international drilled in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
That’s an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. History, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, while the positive results have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side which has just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem strangely fragile – yet currently the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their star man to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more when facing United.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents registered more shots and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.
A reversion to average might be the greatest opponent they have to face in the near future. The forward, surely, will not continue to thrashing the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists another reality whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
- The attacking talent could transform into the force he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.
This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this is a surprise. Few believed the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.
